Category: Nuclear Proliferation

Iran’s in the Mood to Negotiate on its Nuclear Program

HASHEM PESARAN, professor of economics, USC Dornsife.

This op-ed originally appeared in the Guardian on Sept. 17.

It is well documented that economic sanctions on their own have not generally been effective in achieving their political aims, particularly when they are imposed against non-democratic regimes. Sanctions have their greatest impact in the short term, as their effects tend to be mitigated in the longer term by structural economic and political adjustments. Overall, effective sanctions have been short-lived, whilst ineffective ones have lasted a long time.

North Korea: Separating Truth From Fiction

DAVID KANG, professor of international relations, Dornsife College, and VICTOR CHA, senior advisor for Asia and Korea chair at Center for Strategic and International Studies.

This op-ed originally appeared at Foreign Policy on March 25.

“North Korea’s not that dangerous.”

Wrong. There is no threat of war on the Korean peninsula because the United States and South Korea have deterred the regime for over six decades, or so the thinking goes. And the occasional provocation from Pyongyang — full of sound and fury — usually ends with it blowing up in its face, signifying nothing. So why worry? Two reasons. First, North Korea has a penchant for testing new South Korean presidents. A new one was just inaugurated in February, and since 1992, the North has welcomed these five new leaders by disturbing the peace. Whether in the form of missile launches, submarine incursions, or naval clashes, these North Korean provocations were met by each newly elected South Korean president with patience rather than pique.

Stand Clear and Let Iran Botch Its Nuclear Ambitions

JACQUES E. C. HYMANS, associate professor of international relations, Dornsife College.

This op-ed originally appeared at Foreign Affairs on Feb. 18.

At the end of January, Israeli intelligence officials quietly indicated that they have downgraded their assessments of Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb. This is surprising because less than six months ago, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned from the tribune of the United Nations that the Iranian nuclear D-Day might come as early as 2013. Now, Israel believes that Iran will not have its first nuclear device before 2015 or 2016.

Isolated Iran to Welcome 100-plus Countries for Summit

NAJMEDIN MESHKATI, professor of engineering, USC Viterbi, and GUIVE MIRFENDERESK, international lawyer.

This op-ed originally appeared in the Los Angeles Times.

The 16th summit of the Non-Aligned Movement in Tehran this week will draw dignitaries and representatives from more than 100 countries — 35 heads of state, including Mohamed Morsi, the current chair of the movement and the first democratically elected president of Egypt, as well as U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.

The Missile Mishap That Nobody Predicted

JACQUES E.C. HYMANS, associate professor of international relations, USC Dornsife.

This op-ed originally appeared in Foreign Affairs.

The dismal failure of North Korea’s April 13 long-range missile test — it broke into pieces after 81 seconds of flight time — has also exposed the poverty of standard proliferation analyses. In the days leading up to the test, most commentators apparently took Pyongyang’s technological forward march for granted. Even the more sober voices evinced little doubt that this test would go at least as well as the country’s 2009 effort, which managed to put a rocket into flight for about fifteen minutes before it malfunctioned. Meanwhile, other technical experts regaled readers with tales of the “emerging” bona fide North Korean Read more →